G7 tax deal is a threat to reformers
I have an op-ed in the AFR arguing that the G7’s proposed cartelisation of the international tax system threatens reform-oriented small open economies, but Australia could perversely benefit given its high tax burden on capital. Ironically, the proposed 15% minimum corporate tax could backfire and become a floor target for international tax competition. Full text below the fold.
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posted on 08 June 2021 by skirchner in Economics
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Higher corporate taxes make paying for Biden’s spending harder
I have an op-ed in the AFR noting that the Biden Administration’s proposed higher corporate tax rate will penalise US companies relative to foreign competitors and reduce investment and incentives to produce in the US relative to the rest of the world.
posted on 04 May 2021 by skirchner in Fiscal Policy
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National security looms large for foreign investment
I have an op-ed in The Mandarin arguing that the government needs to articulate clearly and transparently the reasons for rejecting foreign acquisitions to minimise foreign investment uncertainty and its economic effects.
posted on 20 April 2021 by skirchner in Foreign Investment
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A Foreign Investment Uncertainty Index for Australia and the United States
I have a new report out with the United States Studies Centre, A Foreign Investment Uncertainty Index for Australia and the United States. The index helps quantify the uncertainty generated by our regulation of FDI at the border and its economic implications.
John Kehoe writes up the story in today’s AFR. Michael Heath also has a story in Bloomberg.
posted on 16 April 2021 by skirchner in Foreign Investment
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Reforming Australian Monetary Policy: My New Working Paper for the Mercatus Center
Last year, Scott Sumner invited me to contribute to the Mercatus Center Working Paper series on the topic of Australian monetary policy and how a nominal income targeting regime might be implemented in a small open economy. You can read the research summary here and the full paper here.
posted on 28 January 2021 by skirchner in Monetary Policy
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Australia must avoid America’s demographic stagnation
I have an op-ed in The Mandarin on why Australia must avoid America’s demographic stagnation. Text below the fold.
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posted on 23 November 2020 by skirchner in Population & Migration
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Avoiding US-style demographic stagnation: The role of immigration and population growth in Australia’s post-pandemic recovery
I have a new report out with USSC Avoiding US-style demographic stagnation: The role of immigration and population growth in Australia’s post-pandemic recovery.
In the report, I compare recent demographic trends in Australia and the US, in particular, the decline in the US population growth rate to the lowest in a century, even before the onset of the pandemic. This is the product of record low fertility and the Trump Administration’s tightening of US immigration policy, which the Biden Administration will not be able to unwind quickly.
In Australia, population growth is set to slow to its lowest rate since 1916-17, mainly as a result of pandemic-related international border closures. Treasury is assuming no attempt is made in future to make-up the loss in net overseas migration, implying a permanent loss of populaiton and productive potential relative to a no-pandemic counterfactual.
In the report, I call for a federal government-funded increase in managed isolation and quarantine capacity to ease the rationining of international arrivals in the short-term. The government should also set aside its budget planning cap on permanent migration numbers with a view to making-up for lost NOM and reducing the permanent hit to Australia’s population.
I also argue that the government’s National Population and Planning Framework risks state government capture of federal immigration policy.
There is write-up of the report by Shane Wright in the SMH/Age.
posted on 16 November 2020 by skirchner in Population & Migration
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How the activist Fed will pile more pressure on the RBA
I have an op-ed in the AFR explaining how the Fed’s new inflation targeting strategy differs from the RBA and how it will put pressure on the RBA to lift its game.
posted on 31 August 2020 by skirchner in Monetary Policy
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My Guest Apperance on the BIP Show
My guest apperance on the BIP Show podcast. We talk the US economy, election, MMT and more.
posted on 24 July 2020 by skirchner in Economics
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Enduring partners: The US-Australia investment relationship
The United States Studies Centre has released a new report, Enduring partners: The US-Australia investment relationship, by David Uren. The report is a follow-up and update to our landmark 2017 report, Indispensable Economic Partners on the bilateral investment relationship.
In the latest report, I take the opportunity to update my model of the determinants of inward FDI published in the Australian Economic Review in 2012. The model still holds up quite well adding data up to Q1 2020 and can be used to benchmark Australia’s inward FDI performance relative to economic fundamentals since the Australia-US FTA came into force in 2005.
posted on 16 July 2020 by skirchner in Foreign Investment
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China’s behaviour warrants increased scrutiny of foreign investment
I have an op-ed in The Mandarin on the government’s new national security test for foreign acquisitions. Full text below the fold.
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posted on 09 July 2020 by skirchner in
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My interview with David Beckworth’s Macro Musings podcast
My interview with David Beckworth’s Macro Musings podcast is now available. We talk inflation vs NGDP targeting, Australia’s recent macroeconomic history and what they put in the water at the BIS.
posted on 30 June 2020 by skirchner in Monetary Policy
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Globalisation and labour productivity in the OECD: What are the implications for post-pandemic recovery and resilience?
I have a new report out with the United States Studies Centre on ‘Globalisation and labour productivity in the OECD: What are the implications for post-pandemic recovery and resilience?’
Globalisation is measured on the basis of both the depth and breadth of international connections and so is consistent with seeking greater diversification among trading partners to increase resilience to international shocks.
The report finds a positive relationship between globalisation and productivity for the OECD over the period 1970-2017 and provides a basis for measuring the loss of productivity due to the COVID-19 de-globalisation shock.
The report also finds a negative relationship between the government share of consumption spending and labour productivity, pointing to the need to wind back COVID-19 stimulus measures in the long-run, although these should not be withdrawn prematurely.
The report underscores the importance of restoring and improving Australia’s international connectedness as part of the government’s effort to boost post-pandemic productivity and resilience.
posted on 04 June 2020 by skirchner in Economics
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The US is central to this China trade quarrel
I have an op-ed in The Canberra Times on why Australia-China trade tensions are as much about our trade and industry policy as they are about our foreign policy.
posted on 25 May 2020 by skirchner in Free Trade & Protectionism
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Birmingham on thin ice challenging China to take Australia to the WTO
I have an op-ed in the AFR arguing our barley producers are just as much casualties of Australian industry and trade policy as they are of Chinese foreign policy. As one trade lawyer put it to me, China will wait for Australia to launch a WTO case, then retaliate with WTO complaints against our duties on Chinese imports and negotiate the cases jointly at the WTO.
posted on 15 May 2020 by skirchner in Free Trade & Protectionism
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